Trong the gioi ca cuoc the thao day soi dong, viec nam vung cach thuc hoat dong va giai ma ty le keo nha cai luon la muc tieu hang dau cua moi nguoi choi. Khong chi don thuan la nhung con so hien thi tren bang keo, ty le nay thuc chat la mot he thong phuc tap, phan anh xac suat chien thang ma nha cai du doan, dong thoi la cong cu thiet yeu de ho can bang rui ro va thu loi nhuan. Hieu ro cong thuc dang sau nhung con so nay khong chi giup ban dua ra quyet dinh sang suot hon ma con la chia khoa de toi da hoa co hoi thang cuoc.
ty le bong da Hoat Dong Nhu The Nao? Ban Chat Cua Xac Suat
Truoc khi di sau vao cong thuc, can hieu ro ban chat cua ty le keo. Ve co ban, ty le keo la cach cac nha cai chuyen doi xac suat thuc te cua mot su kien the thao thanh ty le cuoc ma nguoi choi co the dat tien vao. Nha cai khong chi don thuan la du doan doi nao thang; ho dang tinh toan loi nhuan mong muon cua minh.
Moi ty le keo deu duoc xay dung dua tren hai yeu to cot loi: Xac suat du doan (Probability) va Ty le loi nhuan/Hoa hong (Vig hoac Juice).
1. Chuyen Doi Xac Suat Thanh Ty Le Thap Phan
Gia su mot tran dau bong da co xac suat doi A thang duoc uoc tinh la 50%. De chuyen doi xac suat nay thanh ty le keo co ban (Odds):
$$\text{Ty le keo} = \frac{1}{\text{Xac suat (dang thap phan)}}$$
Voi xac suat 50% (tuc 0.5): Ty le keo co ban se la $1 / 0.5 = 2.00$. Neu dat cuoc 100.000 VND, ban se nhan lai 200.000 VND (bao gom ca von).
Tuy nhien, neu nha cai chi ap dung ty le 2.00 cho ca hai cua, ho se khong co loi nhuan neu so tien cuoc duoc phan bo deu. Day la luc yeu to thu hai xuat hien.
Cong Thuc Bi Mat: Tich Hop "Vig" – Hoa Hong Cua Nha Cai
De dam bao loi nhuan bat ke ket qua tran dau, nha cai se chu dong dieu chinh ty le keo xuong thap hon mot chut so voi xac suat thuc te. Phan chenh lech nay chinh la "Vig" (hay con goi la bien loi nhuan).
De xac dinh muc Vig, chung ta can tinh toan tong xac suat ngu y (Implied Probability) tu ty le keo ma nha cai dua ra:
$$\text{Xac suat ngu y (cho mot cua)} = \frac{1}{\text{Ty le keo}}$$
Vi du thuc te:
Xet mot tran dau co ty le keo (nha cai dua ra):
Doi A: 2.10
Doi B: 3.50
* Hoa: 3.20
Tinh xac suat ngu y cho tung cua:
1. Doi A: $1 / 2.10 \approx 0.4762$ (hay 47.62%)
2. Doi B: $1 / 3.50 \approx 0.2857$ (hay 28.57%)
3. Hoa: $1 / 3.20 \approx 0.3125$ (hay 31.25%)
Tong xac suat ngu y: $47.62\% + 28.57\% + 31.25\% = 107.44\%$
Su chenh lech $7.44\%$ so voi muc 100% chinh la bien loi nhuan (Vig) ma nha cai thu ve tren thi truong nay. Day la cong thuc cot loi giup nha cai duy tri loi nhuan ben vung.
Giai Ma Ty Le Keo Chau A (Handicap)
Trong ca cuoc chau A, ty le keo duoc dieu chinh bang cach ap dung mot ty le chap (handicap) de can bang thuc luc hai doi. Cong thuc o day phuc tap hon vi no ket hop viec dinh gia chap voi viec ap dung bien loi nhuan.
1. Xac dinh Muc Chap: Nha cai phan tich su chenh lech thuc luc va dua ra muc chap (vi du: -0.5, -1.0, -1.5).
2. Tinh Ty Le Keo Co Ban cho Muc Chap: Dua tren xac suat du doan sau khi ap dung muc chap, ho tinh ty le keo 1X2 co ban (nhu vi du tren).
3. Ap Dung Ty Le Thong Nhat: Doi voi keo chau A, nha cai thuong co gang giu cho ty le tra thuong hai cua chap (vi du: Chap -0.5 va Chap +0.5) gan bang nhau (thuong dao dong quanh muc 1.85 - 1.95), nham khuyen khich nguoi choi dat cuoc vao ca hai ben de toi da hoa Vig.
Cac con so nhu $1.90$ cho cua tren va $1.90$ cho cua duoi trong keo chap dong nghia voi viec tong xac suat ngu y la $1/1.90 + 1/1.90 \approx 52.63\% + 52.63\% = 105.26\%$. Bien loi nhuan trong truong hop nay la $5.26\%$.
Lam The Nao De Nguoi Choi "Vuot Qua" Cong Thuc Nha Cai?
Hieu duoc cong thuc giup nguoi choi chuyen tu viec doan mo sang phan tich thong minh. Muc tieu cua nguoi choi chuyen nghiep khong phai la du doan chinh xac 100% ket qua, ma la tim kiem gia tri (Value).
Gia tri xuat hien khi:
$$\text{Xac suat thuc te cua ban} > \text{Xac suat ngu y cua nha cai}$$
Neu ban tin rang xac suat doi A thang la 55% (ty le keo ly thuyet la $1/0.55 \approx 1.818$), nhung nha cai lai niem yet ty le 2.00 (tuong duong xac suat ngu y $50\%$), thi day chinh la mot keo co gia tri, boi vi ban dang duoc "tra thuong cao hon" so voi xac suat thuc te ma ban uoc tinh.
Viec theo doi su bien dong cua ty le keo nha cai trong thoi gian thuc la cuc ky quan trong. Su thay doi ty le thuong phan anh viec nha cai dang dieu chinh Vig hoac co thong tin moi (chan thuong, thoi tiet) lam thay doi nhan dinh xac suat cua ho. Phan tich su dich chuyen nay chinh la mot phan thiet yeu trong viec giai ma cong thuc ma cac chuyen gia ap dung.
Nam vung cach tinh toan xac suat ngu y va nhan dien bien loi nhuan (Vig) se giup ban khong con bi choang ngop boi nhung con so kho khan. Thay vao do, ban se nhin thay mot buc tranh ro rang hon ve
lich thi dau cach thuc thi truong ca cuoc dinh gia cac su kien, mo ra co hoi tim kiem nhung keo thom co gia tri thuc su.
Xem Them:
https://www.rueanmaihom.net/forum/to...-nhuan-ca-cuoc
https://tudomuaban.com/chi-tiet-rao-...g-cua-ban.html
https://www.s-white.net/forum/topic/...oi-moi-bat-dau
Giai Ma Cong Thuc Tinh Ty Le Keo Nha Cai Chinh Xac: Chia Khoa Thanh Cong Trong Ca Cuo
